A March towards the 2026 Season.

What will this unpredictable and unique start of the year hold for us. Not like the last six years were predictable, right?

In the spirit of celebrating 2026 and doing my best to embrace AI, I asked Gemini to summarise 2026 and all that has happened into one paragraph and then generate Bauhaus-inspired art to acknowledge 2026 so far.

We've seen such an unfamiliar start to the season. Fuerte ready for harvest in Tzaneen in week 6 - No, we weren't driving with the fruit in our bakkies the whole day and then dropping off at the packhouse. It was a crazy phenomenon. The Fuerte market, local and export, was busted earlier than ever... Maluma season is in full swing, and now the Hass season is well on its way. Does this mean we beat the Peruvian machine? Is this the correct strategy for avoiding the effects of the Strait of Hormuz?

Let's dig in a bit before we get stuck in negativity.

Packouts

It's still early, however, grading quality on the line is significantly better than in the 2025 season. We can potentially give our wonderful (somewhat excessive, however) rainfall the most credit for this, although we would all want to believe we just farmed significantly better.

2026 Season Grading (Maluma, Hass and Fuerte)

2025 Season Grading (Maluma, Hass and Fuerte)

Fuerte Size Distribution (4kg carton eqv)

Hass Size Distribution (4kg carton eqv)

Maluma Size Distribution (4kg carton eqv)

The 'mix' in the grading is mostly all fruit that does not make it to the packline due to fruit size being too small, or being culled before the line.

Another way of looking at size distribution is to sort counts according to our main sizing categories that align with pricing groups. In this sense, we see that this season is yielding a significant 54% in the large grade (count 12 to 18). This is largely due to our high % Maluma exported already, as well as the Fuerte (however, in the early weeks of the Fuerte, the size distribution peaked on count 20, compared to the count 14 peak we generally have).

For us as Allesbeste, and we believe for most South African growers, it is a significant risk mitigation to have a good % in the large and Medium count range. This is the competitive fruit, even when the market comes under pressure during peak supplies. This is our most reliable earner year on year. Thus, when yield and price coincide...we should generally be happy farmers.

The market

Fuerte

Do we ever know what the early Fuerte market will do? Well, it seems it doesn't help when wars break out. In 2025, for the first time in a long time, we were quite happy that the early Fuerte market was good for us. Being 2-4 weeks earlier in most regions from South Africa, we looked at the earlier market and held onto our seats, not knowing what the roller coaster in 2026 would do, but it seemed promising...

Is it that South Africans undercut their own market when we are in panic about the bulk of our crop arriving? Unfortunately, it seems that way. It seems very likely that the early local market (despite a sudden plummet in price once everyone got going) might have outperformed the exports, although final account sales are still due on the exports.

Dark skins (Hass types).

The early Market for Hass looks very similar to the previous years. At least it seems some predictability. The big sizes are still in the win, and Smalls aren't doing too bad either. We do all, however, expect prices to come tumbling down on the smalls after week 18 arrivals. Nothing looks too odd at the moment, and I think with the war going on and expected logistical cost increases. We are all holding our breaths here a bit. But at least the market starts off well. Definitely prefer this.

Maluma so far...

It's still very early.

Yes, but the season also started very early. We saw the first strong harvesting of Maluma starting in week 9 in some areas, and the season was in full commercial swing from South Africa by week 11. The first fruit has arrived safe and sound in Europe, and we are excited to share that never before has Allesbeste been so hands-on with Maluma from other growers and exporters. We are excited for what we believe is going to be a good season. We've been doing our fair share of myth-busting in correlation with a Sherlock Holmes-like attitude towards digging into every piece of the puzzle to ensure we have satisfied Maluma growers and confident agents handling our fruit. Yield in most places has been impressive. We are holding back on the high-fives, although it might not seem that way...but we are ever confident marching forward to another successful Maluma season - slowly earning our way back into the most recognised and produced modern cultivar, still shaking off some bad press from 2022 and 2023. Hold your hats, we love a challenge...especially when we know it's in the growers' sustainability interest.

A possible strategy

So what's news on Peru...? What do you think Peru will be doing this year? I'm sure somewhere in the "Chess for Dummies" book, it says it's a bad Idea to build your every move on the competitor's move.

However, you do not attend any meeting between South African growers at the moment (even water) without these being the most important questions asked...

As much as we would love to get our Malumas off, we are trying our best to optimise the first 2 weeks of Hass, parallel to Maluma, to ease some pressure on the Hass prices on Small fruit. The strategy seems strange, but we have, over the last few years, seen a significant (relative) drop in the local supply as most growers push hard to get their fruit out before Peru. With South Africa being largely export-oriented, this leaves the local market with low supply, and leaves a relatively stable market to mitigate risk. It also leaves some opportunity for market improvements when the Peruvian crop plays out slightly better for us.

So do I recommend you do what we do...Shucks wish I could recommend strategic moves. I think we all need to trust our gut. I am, however, extra worried this year about the logistical costs if the war does not stop. So to me it seems like everyone needs some risk mitigation...chances are that we might feel a butterfly effect somewhere this season, and often, then it's not a particular strategy that saves you but general risk mitigation.

...somewhere in the "Chess for Dummies" book, it says it's a bad Idea to build your every move on the competitor's move.

So, all that bad?

Definitely not. We are so excited about better packouts, higher yields, and Maluma collaboration across the board being better than ever before!

Looking forward to hearing the first prices and feedback around the braai soon. Have a wonderful 2026 season!!